How Helm detects thesis drift

The pipeline, step by step

1. 1
   Decompose the thesis into pillars. Each position is broken into its separable reasons, the pillars. A pillar is a specific, falsifiable claim, for example a claim about government revenue, operating margin, or a demand cycle. You write them, or Helm drafts them from its analysis for you to edit.
2. 2
   Gather available sources. Helm gathers filings, structured financial facts, news and market data for monitored tickers. A missing source or a failed check does not prove that your reason still holds.
3. 3
   Test the evidence against a reason. AI interprets whether a source supports, contradicts or is neutral to a confirmed pillar, and whether it is material. Validation checks reject unsupported excerpts and some weak connections. The interpretation still needs your review.
4. 4
   Derive the monitored status. Deterministic rules use recent material contradictions and distinct source keys to derive weakening or broken status. Severe primary contradictions have an exception, described below. Backfilled evidence does not drive this live status; a saved override takes precedence.
5. 5
   Review the evidence trail. Read the dated source excerpt or market-data description alongside the explanation. Findings appear in the app; push delivery depends on notification preferences and device setup.

Why conservative thresholds matter

The failure mode of any alerting system is crying wolf. If every dip or ambiguous headline flips a pillar, you learn to ignore the alerts, and the one that matters gets lost. So Helm errs toward silence.

A monitored pillar weakens on one material primary-source contradiction or two independently keyed material contradictions in a 30-day window. It normally breaks when at least two converge and one is primary. There is a severe-evidence exception: the current scorer can mark it broken after a price move of at least 20% that it classified as a material contradiction. A price-based flag is a prompt to investigate, not proof that the business thesis failed or an instruction to sell.

Where the citations come from

For text sources, Helm checks that an excerpt occurs in the retrieved source text. Price moves and structured financial facts instead carry system-generated descriptions. The accompanying explanation is AI-written, not a quotation. These checks reduce errors; they do not guarantee correct interpretation, complete coverage or timely delivery. Open the source and compare it with your own reason.

Public research uses a different status model

The public ticker thesis pages use authored house theses and approved evidence. They weight filings and news by source type and age over a trailing year, producing Intact, Watch, Weakening, Broken or Unverified. Personal monitoring uses the 30-day contradiction rules above. Neither status is a recommendation, and an untested reason is not a confirmed reason.

Common questions